Despite the language of the Constitution (“counting the whole number of persons in each State”) and 250 years of contrary practice, the Trump Administration is proposing radical changes to how to conduct the 2030 census that would:
- Exclude millions of noncitizens from the population count. The proposal would count U.S. citizens and green-card holders, but exclude undocumented immigrants and many legally present immigrants who don’t have permanent-resident status.
- Remove race and ethnicity questions from the decennial census. This would be a historic change: the decennial census has collected race/ethnicity information since 1790.
- Use administrative records to determine who counts and where they live. The proposal specifically contemplates using tax records and other government data to help establish someone’s “usual residence.”
Why the proposed changes matter politically
The biggest impact would be to representation. Under the current system, everyone living in a state is counted, regardless of citizenship or immigration status.
The proposal would:
- Shift House seats—and therefore Electoral College votes—away from states with large immigrant populations toward states with fewer immigrants.
- Shift federal funding, because many programs use census-derived population figures. States and localities with large immigrant populations could lose funding even though those people still live there and use public services.
- Impact redistricting and civil-rights law enforcement by eliminating race/ethnicity data. The census is the only source of comprehensive, very small-area demographic data.
The new census methodology would shift power toward the right (or why else would the Trump Administration propose it?). Best estimates are that Washington State is likely to maintain its 10 House seats but could possibly lose one.
We urge you to submit a comment by November 2.