Georgia’s Blue House Project

Spotlight on the South and Georgia

Almost daily, another article, pundit, or poll highlights the possibility of Democratic victories in the South, particularly in our state. Facing South published an article in March about the South’s population growth, which will be documented in the 2030 census. The Cook Political Report currently rates Georgia’s U.S. Senate race as “Lean D” and the governor’s race as a toss-up. A FOX News poll showed U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff ahead of Congressman Mike Collins by 13 points, and the Democratic candidate for governor, Keisha Lance Bottoms, ahead of Republican billionaire Rick Jackson by 5 points.

But we don’t have to put our faith in polls or pundits. Positive recent developments include:

• Every year since 2014, when Democrats held a low of only 60 House seats, we have seen slow but steady increases in the number of Democrats elected to the state House, and now we have 80 Democrats vs.100 Republicans, according to this tally.
• With this growing number, the Democratic caucus has become stronger, more unified, and able to either defeat bad legislation or make it less objectionable. Each gain for the Democrats makes it more difficult for Republicans to pass extreme right-wing agendas and irresponsible budget allocations.
• The election of the two Democratic Public Service Commissioners last fall by wide margins in most House districts across the state is another positive sign.
• Several Republican incumbents in seats the Democrats hope to flip almost lost their seats last election cycle.

Adopt a District

Democrats, and those who hold democratic values, have been gerrymandered into state House districts clustered around Atlanta and other smaller cities across the state.  Some of these heavily blue districts have just had competitive primaries, and the Democratic nominee will likely win in November. In fact, some seats have no Republican challenger.

If you live in one of these deep blue districts, you can adopt a competitive district. Some suggestions for this adoption include:

• Pick a district where you may have some friends or where you may work or shop. Or pick a candidate whose background and experience appeal to you.
• Grab a friend or two and sign up for a few shifts of voter outreach to help your adopted candidate. The most effective voter mobilization tool is direct voter contact through door-knocking or staffing festivals and other community gatherings.
• Phonebanking and texting can be done from the comfort of your home. Do this on your own or host or join a phone bank party.
• Send money! Use the candidate’s donate page to get resources to them—the sooner the better. Do not wait to donate until the last weeks before the election. Early donations are critical to success.
• Consider hosting a fundraiser to spread the word and help support your candidate.
• Ask your adopted candidate if there are other ways you can help.

Democratic candidates often raise far less money than their Republican opponents, especially in the competitive districts. But we know that with smart deployment of resources, hard-working volunteers, and a compelling candidate, winning is possible.

Become a Progressive Investor

Beyond, or in addition to, adopting a district, volunteering for or contributing to candidates, you can become what is sometimes called a Progressive Investor. Two groups in Georgia function somewhat like mutual funds, receiving contributions and then deploying them to races and campaigns where they can be most effective. The Democratic Party of Georgia (DPG), with new leadership and an expanding staff, is now better able to help reelect Democratic incumbents, direct resources, and play a specific legal role in election protection issues.

The other resource is the Georgia Alliance for Progress. The Alliance raises money from both in-state and out-of-state investors to fund a larger ecosystem of state-based organizations that operate independently of both the DPG and candidates. Deeply grounded in community values, the Alliance builds lasting power and expands the progressive voting base. It focuses on a dual strategy: winning crucial elections in the short term, and creating the necessary conditions to pass progressive policy and hold elected officials accountable in the long term.

As we look towards the November elections, the outlook is sunny and blue for Georgia and for Democratic candidates hoping to win seats held by Republicans. Below are descriptions of 12 seats most likely to flip from red to blue based on past voting performance. They are ranked by tiers one, two, and three. Note that some people may have slightly different lists or tier groupings. Included are links to the Democratic candidates’ websites with donation buttons; a Ballotpedia link showing the district map; the share of the vote that candidate Kamala Harris received in 2024; and a few highlights of the particular campaign or candidate.

Tier 1

HD 45: Michelle Schreiner (D) vs. Sharon Cooper. This district is in parts of Roswell and Sandy Springs.  The Ballotpedia website is here. In 2024, the Democratic candidate, Eric Castater, got 42.5%, and Kamala Harris got 47.39%. Melita Easters, Executive Director of Georgia WIN List, regards Schreiner as a fabulous candidate with a good chance of defeating Republican Cooper. Schreiner ran in HD 90 in 2022 but lost in a primary runoff to Rep. Saira Draper before moving to the Roswell area.

HD 48: Adam Cleveland (D) vs. Scott Hilton. This district is in Johns Creek and North Fulton. In 2024, the Democratic candidate, Laura Murvartian, got 45.7% of the vote, and Harris received 49.2%. The Ballotpedia website is here. Cleveland, a Georgia native and attorney, has had extensive experience working to get certain pieces of legislation passed in recent years. He is active in his neighborhood association and at the Temple.

HD 53: Beth Fuller (D) vs. Deborah Silcox. This district encompasses part of Roswell and Sandy Springs. In 2024, Harris got 52.26%, and the Democratic candidate, Susie Greenberg, got 48.1%. The Ballotpedia website shows the extreme gerrymander for this district. Fuller is a Georgia native who grew up near Emory University and is the daughter of a superior court judge. “She has a very well-organized campaign,” said Easters. “And former candidate Greenberg is also very supportive.”

HD 99:  Michelle Kang (D) vs Matt Reeves. This district covers Suwanee, Sugar Hill, and Duluth. Kang and Reeves have been battling back and forth for this seat. Kang almost won in 2024, garnering 48.9% of the vote. Harris got 51.77% the same year. Ballotpedia website shows another extreme gerrymander. “Kang understands how important branding is to a candidate and campaign,” Easters said. “She has been sophisticated about tailoring her campaign to the multifaceted community in her district.”

HD 105: Farooq Mughal  (D) vs. Sandy Donatucci. This district around Dacula has been a battleground between these two candidates since 2022, when Mughal prevailed over Donatucci narrowly with 51.7% of the vote. They faced off again in 2024, when Farooq lost to Donatucci by fewer than 100 votes, with 49% of the vote. Harris got 50.35% in that year. Ballotpedia website is here.

Tier 2: 

HD 44:  Danielle Bell (D) vs. Don Parsons. The district includes parts of Marietta and Woodstock. Bell ran against Parsons in 2024, receiving 43.1% of the vote, while Harris got 44.56%. Ballotpedia website is here. “Danielle has a young family and is representative of some of the newer faces showing up in Woodstock. She can really represent their interests. She comes from a background of hardship and shows a lot of perseverance and resilience,” said  Han Pham, executive director of Her Term, an organization that helps women run and get elected.

HD 49: Teresa Lin (D) vs. Chuck Martin. This district includes North Fulton and Alpharetta, where Harris received 45.6% in 2024. Lin is running against Chuck Martin, who has been in office since 2003 and whose Democratic opponents routinely get percentages in the mid 40s.. “A unique aspect of Lin’s background is that even though she’s from Georgia, she has lived abroad much of her adult life with her husband, who is Taiwanese. The perspective she brings is how government works in different places and makes her a great candidate and legislator,” said Pham. The Ballotpedia website is here.

HD 81: Mishael White (D) vs. Noelle Kahaian. This district centers on Henry County in South Metro Atlanta, where Harris received 43.7% of the vote in 2024. “This district has changed demographically, and Mishael is an amazing person. He’s a truck driver and small business owner,” said Kimberlyn Carter, executive director of Represent Georgia, a candidate recruitment organization.  The Ballotpedia website shows that White ran in 2024 and received 34% of the vote.

Tier 3

In 2024, Kamala Harris received more than  40% of the votes in each district included in tier three. Below is a list of tier-three candidates, with their geographic areas and links to their campaign and Ballotpedia websites. Candidates in this tier are:

HD 19:  Cynthia Starke-Jones(D) vs. Joseph Gullett. Dallas, Paulding County.  Ballotpedia.

HD 34:  Titus Nichols (D) vs. Devan Seabaugh. Kennesaw and West Cobb. Ballotpedia.

HD 46:  Dumont Walker (D) vs. John Carson. North Cobb and part of Cherokee. Ballotpedia.

HD 147:  Renita Duncan (D) vs. Bethany Ballard. Warner Robins and Perry. Ballotpedia.

“We’re impressed not only with the strength of the candidates, but also the dynamics coming into play, not just on a statewide level, but nationally. And with what we’ve seen in recent Georgia elections as well as legislative elections in other states, we see where the numbers are shifting,” said Andrew Heaton, Director of Campaign and Field Services of the Georgia House Democratic Caucus. “We see what the overall performance is looking like, and we feel very, very strongly that if we don’t take the chamber outright, we’re going to get very close.”

Likewise, Easters said she has very high hopes for flipping the House. “We have so many open seats, and we have so many older Republican incumbents who have coasted along on the power of the incumbency for far too long. I like to say that people are just fed up and ready to vote. Plus, this is one of the most highly qualified slates of women candidates that we’ve seen. Really, their grassroots campaigning is well equipped to help lift the entire ticket.”

Also, in a thoughtful article in the current issue of Vanity Fair titled The Next Black President. Ta-Nehisi Coates wrote, “A black presidency is a contradiction–it owes its power to a movement against racist state violence at home but seeks an office which has always practiced racist state violence abroad.”

What I’m Listening To: In Whose America? Whose Story? An episode of the podcast Intersectionality Matters with Kimberlé Crenshaw. “…explores why, after two and a half centuries, our national narrative still clings to the anti-Blackness embedded in the nation’s founding, all while insisting that this bleak history no longer deserves our attention.”